Incidents and Accidents
Incidents and Accidents: A Game-Theoretic Study of Risk, Agency, and the Architecture of a Life A formal distinction between mistakes and accidents becomes possible once we analyze human action through the lens of game theory and probability. Every life, whether in sport, work, relationships, or citizenship, unfolds within a set of strategies, constraints, and payoffs. Some outcomes are predictable within this landscape; others are not. A coherent view of risk begins here. Mistakes arise from within the system. An individual selects a strategy—consciously or implicitly—based on skill, history, conditions, and goals. Each strategy carries a known or knowable distribution of outcomes. A skier misjudges a landing, a motorcyclist enters a corner too hot, a climber misreads the rock, a physician makes a timing or inference error. These failures occur inside the expected payoff distribution. They are endogenously generated losses that result from bounded rationality, limited information, cog...